For the army of expectant Nigerians, especially those clamouring for second term for President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, the much awaited declaration for the crucial contest appears to have been a long wait for the proverbial ‘Godot’ as the President seems not to be in a hurry to make the move.
On different occasions, the President had severally resisted pressure to declare his intention regarding 2015 even as he promised to make his decision known this year. One of such occasions was the last presidential chat held early this month when he diplomatically parried the question of his proposed ambition to run for second term.
Jonathan had earlier hinged his reluctance to declare on the position of electoral law and non release of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)’s timetable
Last January, while speaking at the end of the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, the President said he was awaiting INEC’s green light.
“I am not going to talk about whether I am standing for election or not because it is not in line with our laws. INEC has a time frame within which candidates are expected to declare. If you declare before that time, you are actually contravening the Nigerian laws. So, I won’t tell anybody that I am contesting or that I’m not contesting,” he said.
But the INEC on January 24 finally released the election timetable for the 2015 general election and fixed February 14, 2015 for Presidential Election, thus dousing the mounting tension in the polity.
However, three months after the release of INEC timetable, mum is the word from the President even as subtle campaigns have been ongoing by few of his foot soldiers mostly visible in government owned electronic media and few other privately owned outfits.
The development has in addition brought to memory similar scenario that played out in 2010 ahead of the April 2011 general election as Jonathan on September 15, 2010, announced on the social media website, Facebook, his intention to run for Presidency.
But with the 2015 election already fixed for February next year, the question on the lips of many watchers of political events in the country is ‘when will Jonathan declare?’
A number of people have reasoned that the President may have been taking his time to study the situation before making the move, considering the amount of credibility crisis his first term is believed to have suffered in the eyes of public opinion as opposed to what obtained in 2010 where as the Acting President, the Otuoke-born politician rose on the crest of overwhelming support of all Nigerians to emerge the winner of that election.
Many political watchers have also held the belief that the President is in a dilemma on whether to run or not. This is because several dates had earlier been scheduled for the declaration, but they were shelved for certain reasons best known to the PDP and the President. The declaration was initially scheduled for February, then shifted to March and later to April.
However, the continued foot-dragging by President Jonathan on his ambition is generating suspense within his party even as the month of May is wounding up.
A chieftain of the PDP in Ogun State who spoke to Daily Newswatch on condition of anonymity said: “The President is in a dilemma; there is no doubt about that, when taking into consideration the internal schisms tearing the PDP apart in recent times. Recall that it was in Jonathan’s Presidency that four sitting governors with a number of lawmakers dumped the party, compounded by the unwholesome rise in insurgency in the land. Ordinarily, one would have expected a wise president to critically assess the situation on ground before asking Nigerians for another term.”
In a similar vein, the 2015 ambition of the President has become controversial with loyalists and opponents of Jonathan heating the polity with their statements.
The Kano political rally 24 hours after the April 14 Nyanyan bomb blast where over 70 Nigerians were reportedly killed turned out to be one of Jonathan’s worst moments to sell his candidature to many enraged Nigerians as the move was greeted by scathing condemnations.
“It is plain insensitive’’ said Bamidele Aturu, activist and human rights lawyer. Aturu said the President’s action showed the huge disconnect between Nigerians and their political leaders. “Our people need to understand that there is big disconnect between them and the people that leads them who only require them to vote to be in power,” he said.
Echoing similar sentiments, another Lagos lawyer, Festus Keyamo described the President’s action as ‘insensitive and irresponsible’. “That is a sign that the government does not value the lives of Nigerians as a matter of fact, it is a confirmation that the present system actually enjoys the pogrom that is going on in that part of the country,” Keyamo lamented
Nobel Laureate, Professor Wole Soyinka also charged President Jonathan to face the problem of Boko Haram uprising and stop concentrating on his re election campaign
In a related development which appears to be in line with the mood of the nation the last week cancellation of the President’s visit to Ekiti State to boost the electoral fortune of PDP candidate in the June 21 governorship elections, Ayo Fayosee has been applauded coming after another devastating terror attack in Jos.
Also, the issue of Jonathan’s second coming has assumed serious ethnic dimension in recent times. While some prominent South-South leaders have threatened that they will make the country ungovernable if the President is not given a second term, Northern elders have claimed that the President signed a one-term agreement and must honour it; a claim the Presidency has refuted many times.
Only last week, a group of politicians operating on the platform of Cross River Consensus (CRC) took a cue from the line of sublime to the ridiculous when it threatened to sue President Jonathan to court if he fails to declare his intention to run for a second term within the next three months.
The group said Jonathan has been dragging his feet as to whether he will run for second term or not.
Making the call in a press statement in Calabar, the group said it was high time Jonathan stepped out boldly to announce his intent to run for Presidency in 2015.
In a statement signed by CRC Director General, Paul Adah and former House of Representatives member representing Obudu/Obanliku Federal Constituency of Cross River, the group said: “Considering the positive steps taken so far to turn around our economy through the on-going transformation programme, we urge him to quickly declare for his legitimate second term in office, or we shall compel him through a legal instrument of order of mandamus.
“We are getting close to 2015 general elections; it is high time the President took the bull by the horns by coming out in full force to offer himself to Nigerians for another four year service as early as possible.
“In advanced countries, presidential campaigns take longer time; but here, we wait for the dying minute to declare.”
“We support zoning and that is why we are for Jonathan, because, it is the turn of the South South since we have not tasted power before now. So, Nigerians should be patient and allow us to finish our turn before going to any other zone.
“Every zone has the legitimate right to lead this country. Therefore, nobody or group of persons should think they have sole right to push out the incumbent President, because he is from a minority.”
But what appears the major concern of many observers of political events in Nigeria is the issue of how the Northern region will react to the President’s declaration for another term having allegedly signed a single term pact in the build-up to the 2011 election.
The argument trailing the purported agreement was brought to the fore last year in a controversial letter written by former President Olusegun Obasanjo to Jonathan where he criticized the President for reneging on his earlier promise to rule for one term of four years although the President has always denied the agreement challenging anyone to produce the alleged document.
Obasanjo was corroborating an earlier claim by Niger State governor, Babangida Aliyu, who said that the President signed a pact with an interest group within the ruling PDP to serve only one term of four years.
According to the governor, “I recall that at the time he was going to declare for the 2011 election, all the PDP governors were brought together to ensure that we were all in the same frame of mind. And I recall that some of us said, given the circumstances of the death of President Umaru Yar’Adua and given the PDP zoning arrangement, it was expected that the North was to produce the President for a given number of years. I recall that at that discussion, it was agreed that Jonathan would serve only one term of four years and we all signed the agreement. Even when Jonathan went to Kampala, in Uganda, he also said he was going to serve a single term.”
Governor Murtala Nyako, Adamawa State governor buttressing Aliyu’s argument, maintained that contrary to the claims by Jonathan and his aides that he did not enter into such a deal with the governors, the President indeed, sealed the deal with them and pledged to abide by it.
Nyako, who had since dumped the PDP and joined opposition APC added that efforts by the President to jettison the said agreement is the major cause of the crisis rocking the PDP, even went as far as saying that not only did President Jonathan sign an agreement with them to serve for a single term of four years, he (Nyako) could also produce documents backing up the claim in case the President reneged on the agreement.
Also speaking on the development, Convener of Save Nigeria Group (SNG), Pastor Tunde Bakare, has predicted that the Northern part of the country will erupt in violence if the President decides to seek re-election for another four-year term in office. He however threw his weight behind the ongoing constitutional conference as a panacea for the impending political lock jam.
“That is why we say let us go to the conference to save ourselves of major unprecedented rage. Because the way it is right now, if President Jonathan decides tomorrow and say ‘I am going to run for election’, the North will boil. If he wins, it is the same, because North has been outside the power equation for a long time now. Eight years of Obasanjo, four years of Jonathan and in-between, they are just sandwiched two years of late Umaru Yar’Adua. So, that could be part of the reason. Especially when the people in the North are feeling deprived and they don’t even know where to direct the attacks. And if Jonathan says, ‘I am not contesting’ and the North wins, the boys in the creeks are going to blow up all your oil wells. Head they win, tail you lose,” Bakare noted.
However in all of these claims and counter claims, many loyalists of Jonathan for second term have taken solace in the constitutional provision which guarantees a maximum two terms of eight years which in the case of the incumbent President should not be denied him
But in what many have described as a melodrama of sort, Obasanjo last week, announced his open endorsement of Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido for 2015 presidency, saying he is more than qualified to lead Nigeria in case he decides to contest the 2015 Presidential election. Obasanjo, who made the statement in Dutse Local Government Area of Jigawa State said Lamido has the capacity to lead Nigeria.
“Although he has not told me about his intention to contest, but going by his pedigree, exposure and experience, he is more than qualified to lead Nigeria. As of today, he stands shoulder to shoulder with anyone as far as the capacity to lead Nigeria is concerned. He has demonstrated that capacity here in Jigawa for all to see,” he stated.
Will President Goodluck Jonathan seek re-election in 2015? If yes- why the delay to announce his decision less than 10 months to the presidential election? These are the one million naira questions which only time will tell.